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城南旧事好词好句-刨去反常变化要素的影响,美国的通胀增速有点偏高

译者 王为

文中黑字部分为原文,蓝字部分为译文,红字部分为译者注释或弥补阐明

Without the Outliers, Inflation Is Running Hot. Fed Has Started Mentioning these Measures in the Minutes

by Wolf Richter

Cleveland Fed’s Underlying Inflation Measure Hits 3.0%, Hottest in the Data.

克利夫兰联储银行编制的通胀目标增速为3.0%,为各类通胀增速目标中的最高值

“Soft inflation?” The inflation measure by the Cleveland Fed — the “Median CPI,” which is based on Consumer Price Index data but removes the outliers in the data to reveal underlying inflation trends — jumped 3.0% for September, the highest in the data series going back to the Financial Crisis, when this measure was launched.

“美国其时的通胀增速真的不高吗?”, 克利夫兰联储银行编制的通胀目标——“消费物价指数涨幅的中位值”9月份增速跳升至3.0%,创下该目标于2008年金融危机期间初次发布以来的最高纪录,该目标的编制是依据消费物价指数,可是不含变化起伏一般较大、简单发作反常影响的物价要素,这样就能够更精确地反响美国通胀率的根本变化状况。

By comparison, “core CPI,” which removes food and energy prices, hit 2.4% in August and September, the highest since September 2008:

与该目标构成鲜明对比的是“消费物价指数涨幅的中心值”,即刨除了动力和食物价格变化要素的消费物价增速在8月份和9月份均为2.4%,也是自2008年9月以来的最高值:

The Fed is mentioning these kinds of alternative inflation measures in the minutes of the FOMC meetings – voiced by “some participants” – to show that underlying trends in inflation are pointing upward, except for a few outliers, such as the re-collapse of oil prices and a few other items that skew the overall results, and to show that the “soft inflation readings during the earlier period were transitory.”

在最城南旧事好词好句-刨去反常变化要素的影响,美国的通胀增速有点偏高新发布的9月份联储例会会议纪要中,从前应“某些与会委员的要求”说到过这些联储要点调查规模之外的通胀目标,这些通胀目标显现美国通胀增速正在趋势性地加快上行,只要几个反常物价要素是个破例,比方近期再次大幅下挫的油价以及其他几个与全体物价走势各走各路的物价要素,还说到“在趋势的前期阶段体现出来的通胀增速疲软状况是临时性的”。

The oil bust that started in mid-2014 did a job on overall inflation data. The price of oil plunged by over 70%. Crude oil i四年级下册英语s not only refined into transportation and heating fuels; it’s also used as feedstock for the chemical industry. And that worked itself into the broader pricing data. In October last year, oil prices had recovered partially, with WTI trading in the range of $75 a barrel. But then oil prices collapsed again, and are now down 28% from a year ago.

2014年中开端大跌的油价对美国全体的通胀走势发作了影响,其时油价最多时跌落了超越70%。原油不只会被加工成运送燃料和取暖用油,并且还能够作为化学工业的原材料,这就导致油价的变化会体现在更广泛的物价变化要素中。上一年十月份西德克萨斯轻质原油的油价曾一度呈现反弹至75美元邻近,但随后再次遭受暴降,其时的油价与一年前比较跌落了28%。

Oil does this from time to time, as do agricultural commodities, and that is why inflation measures are offered in at least two versions: “All items” and “without food and energy.” The all-items CPI in September rose a tame 1.7% from a year ago. But the CPI without food and energy (“core CPI,” the blue line in the chart above) jumped 2.4% — the fastest rate since September 2008.

油价常常发作这样比较大的动摇,农产品的价格也是如此,这便是为啥通胀目标会被分红至少两大类:一类是“包括一切物价要素的通胀目标”,另一类是“不含食物和动力物价要素的通胀增速”,9月份的全物价通胀增速与上一年同期比较温文上涨了1.7%,可是“不含食物和动力物价要素的通胀增速”,即上图中蓝线表明的“消费物价指数涨幅的中心值”的同比增速到达2.4%,为2008年9月以来的最高纪录。

Energy and agricultural commodities are not the only items that skew overall inflation readings. There are other items as well that – for reasons unrelated to inflation – more or less briefly spike or collapse, before reverting toward the mean. The moves are related to short-term market manias, supply crunches, supply gluts, sudden price wars, and other factors that are unrelated to the purchasing power of the dollar (which is what consumer price inflation measures).

食物和动力的价格不是导致全体通胀目标呈现反常体现的仅有要素,其他一些价格要素也会歪曲全体通胀目标的走势,变化原因尽管与全体通胀走势无关,但在终究回归正常的变化趋势之前或多或少地会呈现某种程度地快速上涨或快速跌落,与物价的反常动摇有关的要素有商场的短期紊乱、供求失衡、突然迸发的价格战以及其他与美元购买力无关的要素,而美元的购买力是消费物价指数核算的根底。

After the turmoil of the Financial Crisis, the Cleveland Fed launched the “Median CPI” in the chart above to show underlying trends of inflation in consumer prices and to predict inflation trends over the medium time horizon.

在2008年金融危城南旧事好词好句-刨去反常变化要素的影响,美国的通胀增速有点偏高机迸发后,克利夫兰联储银行发布了新编制的通胀目标——“消费物价指数涨幅的中位值”,即上图中的红线,该目标反响的是美国消费物价的根本走势,并可被用于猜测通胀的中期变化趋势。

The Median CPI tracks the mid-point (median) of the 45 CPI components, with a cumulative importance of near 50%:

“消费物价指数涨幅的中位值”盯梢的是消费物价指数构成中45种产品的价格波幅的中位数,其对整个指数的动摇的影响程度根本上处于50%这个方位上,在下表中:

  • Above it are the components with the biggest price declines and the lowest price gains that combined weigh about 50% in the index.

    高于“消费物价指数涨幅的中位值”的是跌幅最大及涨幅最低的物价要素,在指数中的占比为50%左右;

  • Below it are the components with the biggest price gains, weighing the remaining 50%.

    低于“消费物价指数涨幅的中位值”的是涨幅最大的物价要素,在指数中的占比保持在50%。

The line in between marks the midpoint of CPI, hence the “Median CPI.” This line in the middle came in at 3.0% annualized rate in September.

表顶用加粗的线表明的是悉数45种产品波幅中坐落中心方位上的价格动摇值,这便是“消费物价指数涨幅的中位值”, 9月份45个物价年化波幅的中位数是3.0%。

The table (via the Cleveland Fed) shows the 45 CPI components for September 2019, from the components with the largest price declines 城南旧事好词好句-刨去反常变化要素的影响,美国的通胀增速有点偏高(at the top, motor fuel: -25.1%) to the components with the largest price gains (at the bottom, lodging away from home: +28.1%). The mid-point (the point closest to a cumulative weight of 50) is the “median CPI,” and is marked in bold (if your smartphone clips one of the four columns, hold it in landscape position):

下表显现的是构成消费物价指数的45种产品的价格在2019年9月份的波幅,跌幅最大的是车用燃料油-25.1%的油价跌幅,离家在外住宿费用28.1%的涨幅最高。波幅的中位数也便是在整个物价指数中的变化权重值最接近50%的物价波幅便是“消费物价指数涨幅的中位值”,在途顶用加剧的黑线表明。

Component1-Month Annualized % ChangeRelative Importance % Cumulative Relative Importance %
Motor Fuel-25.13.63.6
Women’s and Girls’ Apparel-18.71.24.8
Used Cars and Trucks-17.92.37.1
Fresh Fruits and Vegetables-15.01.08.1
Infants’ and Toddlers’ Apparel-13.40.18.3
Fuel Oil and Other Fuels-12.60.28.4
Miscellaneous Personal Goods-12.10.28.6
Watches and Jewelry-11.90.28.9
Medical Care Commodities-6.91.710.6
Personal Care Products-3.20.711.2
Alcoholic Beverages-3.11.012.2
Communication-1.53.515.7
Energy Services-1.53.319.0
New Vehicles-1.53.722.7
Footwear-1.20.723.4
Tenants’ and Household Insurance0.10.423.8
Recreation0.45.729.4
Education0.73.132.5
Personal Care Services1.20.633.1
Nonalcoholic Beverages and Beverage Matls1.30.934.0
Processed Fruits and Vegetables1.40.334.3
Dairy and Related Products1.90.735.0
Motor Vehicle Maintenance and Repair2.31.136.1
Public Transportation2.51.137.3
South: Owners’ Equivalent Rent of Residences2.58.245.4
Water/Sewer/Trash Collection Services2.71.146城南旧事好词好句-刨去反常变化要素的影响,美国的通胀增速有点偏高.5
Misc Personal Services3.01.047.5
Midwest: Owners’ Equivalent Rent of Residences3.04.351.9
Food Away From Home3.26.158.0
Meats, Poultry, Fish and Eggs3.31.659.6
Motor Vehicle Insurance3.32.461.9
Northeast: Owners’ Equivalent Rent of Residences3.45.167.1
Household Furnishings and Operation3.54.371.3
Other Foo城南旧事好词好句-刨去反常变化要素的影响,美国的通胀增速有点偏高d At Home3.71.873.2
West: Owners’ Equivalent Rent of Residences3.96.779.9
Rent of Primary Residence4.38.187.9
Leased Cars and Trucks4.40.688.6
Medical Care Services4.57.195.7
Cereals and Bakery Products5.71.096.6
Car and Truck Rental6.90.196.8
Tobacco and Smoking Products7.50.797.4
Motor Vehicle Fees7.60.598.0
Motor Vehicle Parts and Equipment8.00.498.4
Men’s and Boys’ Apparel25.50.799.1
Lodging Away From Home28.10.9100.0

As you can see, some prices surge and other prices plunge, and many prices move up and down in smaller increments. Part of those moves are due to temporary factors. CPI is a weighted average of these moves and is skewed by outliers. Over the long term, the moves by these outliers wash out as they revert, but over the median term, they distort CPI.

能够看到,有些产品的价格在大涨,有些产品的价格在大跌,还有许多产品的价格涨跌起伏不大。价格波幅中有一部分是受临时性要素的影响,消费物价指数是对各类产品价格的波幅加权均匀核算后的成果,但其间某些产品反常的价格动摇会导致核算的成果被歪曲。从长时刻来看,这些反常的价格动摇会被产品价格反方向的反常动摇而抵消,但从中期来看,反常的价格动摇会歪曲消费物价指数的体现。

That’s the reason why CPI is so volatile though the actual loss of the purchasing power of the dollar over time is on a fairly steady trend.

这便是尽管跟着时刻的演化美元的购买力整体体现仍适当安稳,但美国的消费物价指数却如此剧烈动摇的原因。

The Cleveland Fed attempts to show the loss of the purchasing power of the dollar over the medium term, not influenced by the outliers. And based on this measure, the inflation trend is heating up. And “some participants” at the FOMC have started to point this out.

克利夫兰联储银行企图提醒出,在不考虑物价反常动摇要素的前提下,美元购买力在未来中期的丢失程度。依据该行编制的“消费物价指数涨幅的中位值”,美国的物价水平正在加快上涨,而联储中的“某些与会委员”现已开端注意到这一点了。

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